Nuclear Renaissance
The nuclear-for-AI thesis: hyperscaler PPAs, SMR deployments, plant restarts, and the uranium fuel supply chain. One of the defining investment themes of 2026.
US Nuclear Fleet
Across 54 plants in 28 states. Average age: 42 years.
~18.2% of US electricity. Largest clean energy source (post-Vogtle Unit 4).
Highest of any energy source. Up from 56% in 1980s. EIA 2024 average.
NRC granting 80-year licenses (SLR). First approved: Turkey Point 3&4 (FPL, Dec 2019).
~50M lbs U₃O₈. Only ~5% domestically mined. Heavy reliance on imports.
AP1000 reactors. $35B total cost. Only new US reactors in 30+ years.
NRC Reactor Status
SMR Project Pipeline
50 MWe Design Certification Jan 2023; 77 MWe Standard Design Approval May 2025. First NRC-approved SMR design.
Only NRC-certified SMR. CFPP cancelled due to cost escalation. Pivoting to DC and international markets. Standard Power (Ohio) deal active. NuScale/TVA/ENTRA1 announced Sep 2025: 6 GW SMR deployment program.
Construction Permit application filed Mar 2025 via Long Mott Energy (Dow). NRC docketed May 2025, accelerated 18-month review. Environmental Assessment with FONSI issued May 18, 2026 — environmental review complete. CP decision possible late 2026.
DOE ARDP awardee ($1.2B). TRISO fuel. Amazon invested $500M. X-energy closed $700M Series D (Nov 2025), total raised $1.8B. Process heat + electricity for chemical plant.
Construction Permit issued Dec 2023. First advanced reactor CP in 50+ years.
Non-power demonstration reactor (35 MWth, no electricity generation). Kairos has Google PPA for 500 MW of future commercial units (6 reactors). Fastest NRC review in modern history.
Construction Permit issued Mar 4, 2026. First commercial non-LWR CP in 40+ years. FSER completed Dec 2025. Construction began Apr 23, 2026 (Bechtel).
DOE ARDP awardee. Built-in 5-hour molten salt thermal storage (peak to 500 MWe). Site of former coal plant. HALEU fuel required. Meta signed deal for up to 8 Natrium reactors (2.8 GW + 1.2 GW storage).
Construction Permit application submitted May 2025 — first US BWRX-300 CPA. NRC docketed Jul 2025; review expected complete by Dec 2026.
Uses existing light-water fuel supply chain (no HALEU needed). TVA considering up to 5 units. Ontario Power Generation building first-of-kind in Canada (2029 target).
DOD-authorized (not NRC). Fuel delivered Dec 2025, core under construction.
First transportable nuclear reactor in decades. Fits in standard shipping containers. DOD Project Pele for forward operating bases. HALEU fuel. 1.5 MWe output.
Pre-application engagement. Targeting NRC design review 2025-2026.
Factory-built, truck-transportable. No water cooling needed. Targets remote mines, data centers, military. HALEU fuel.
Combined License Application under NRC review. NRC approved Principal Design Criteria topical report May 2026 on accelerated timeline. Broke ground Sep 2025 at INL.
Broke ground at INL Sep 2025. Kiewit selected as constructor. DOE-authorized pathway. IPO'd on NYSE (OKLO). Sam Altman is chairman. Meta 1,200 MW PPA announced Jan 2026.
Partial CP application submitted Dec 2025. NRC docketed Feb 2026. Two 340 MWe units at Palisades site.
Co-located with Palisades restart. Leverages existing grid connection and cooling infrastructure. Would be largest SMR deployment in US if built. $400M DOE matching grant (Dec 2025); NRC safety evaluations expected by H1 2027, phase 2 of CP application due mid-2027.
Nuclear Plant Restart Tracker
PPA: Microsoft (20-year PPA)
Renamed 'Crane Clean Energy Center'. Restart accelerated from 2028 to 2027. $1B DOE loan conditional commitment. NRC license amendment review underway.
Would be first-ever US nuclear plant restart. NRC approved Jul 2025. 800 MW, $1.52B DOE loan. Q1 2026 target missed — no firm restart date; Holtec says it will restart 'when the plant is ready for long-term operations'. Primary system passivation completed Apr 2026; fuel delivered (68 assemblies), not yet loaded. Steam generator tube repairs (sleeve inserts) and missing weld documentation (CMTRs) addressed. Holtec purchased from Entergy for decommissioning, now pivoting to restart. Michigan political support strong.
PPA: Google (25-year PPA)
NextEra and Google signed 25-year PPA. Restart targeted Q1 2029. Three license amendment requests under NRC review (operating license/tech specs, emergency preparedness, security); NRC to issue licensing actions before Jan 2028. Iowa legislature passed enabling legislation. Derecho damage in 2020 accelerated original shutdown.
NY Governor Hochul expressed interest in restart. Holtec exploring feasibility. Heavy political opposition from Westchester County. Would transform NYC clean energy supply.
Data Center Nuclear PPAs
| Buyer | Plant / Source | Type | Capacity | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Microsoft | Three Mile Island Unit 1 (Constellation) | restart | 835 MW | signed |
| Amazon (Talen Energy) | Susquehanna Nuclear (front-of-meter PPA) | existing | 1.9 GW | signed |
| Kairos Power (Hermes SMR) | smr | 500 MW | signed | |
| Amazon | X-energy (Xe-100 SMR) | smr | 320 MW | announced |
| Oracle | NuScale / undisclosed SMR | smr | 1.0 GW | announced |
| Standard Power | NuScale VOYGR | smr | 462 MW | under review |
| Constellation Energy | Various existing fleet | existing | 2.0 GW | signed |
| Meta | Comanche Peak Nuclear (Vistra) | existing | 1.2 GW | signed |
| Meta | Perry + Davis-Besse + Beaver Valley (Vistra) | existing | 2.6 GW | signed |
| Meta | Oklo Aurora Fast Reactor | smr | 1.2 GW | announced |
| Meta | TerraPower Natrium (8 reactors) | new | 2.8 GW | announced |
| Google (Kairos/TVA) | Kairos Hermes for TVA | smr | 50 MW | signed |
Conversion & Enrichment Capacity
SWU pricing at $205/SWU — Western supply only 42% of global capacity
HALEU Supply Chain
High-Assay Low-Enriched Uranium (5-20%) needed for advanced reactors. Centrus HALEU demo producing ~900 kg/yr (DOE contract). Need: 20+ tonnes.
| Reactor | Developer | HALEU Need | Enrichment | First Fuel |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Natrium | TerraPower | 12t | 12% | 2028-2029 |
| Xe-100 | X-energy | 5t | 15.5% | 2029-2030 |
| Hermes | Kairos Power | 2t | 19.75% | 2027 |
| Pele Microreactor | BWXT | 200 kg | 19.75% | 2027-2028 |
| eVinci | Westinghouse | 500 kg | 19.75% | 2029 |
Fusion Investment Tracker
Pre-CommercialNuclear PPAs are driven by data center demand.
View Data Center Energy Demand →Track uranium spot price and market data.
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