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Rare Earths & Critical Minerals

Rare earth oxides, supply chain concentration, and the balancing problem

Rare Earth Oxide Prices ($/kg)

Monthly averages, 2020–present

China Supply Chain Dominance

Share of global rare earth production by stage (%)

China 2nd Largest Rest of World

The Balancing Problem

Mining one element means mining all of them. Ore content vs. market demand creates structural surpluses (La, Ce) and deficits (Nd, Dy, Tb).

Cerium
3.20x
surplus
Lanthanum
2.80x
surplus
Neodymium
0.85x
deficit
Praseodymium
0.90x
deficit
Dysprosium
0.70x
deficit
Terbium
0.60x
deficit
Others
1.50x
surplus

Key Rare Earth Elements

Tier classification, applications, and demand drivers

NdNeodymiummagnet
NdFeB permanent magnets · EV motors · Wind turbine generators
EV adoptionOffshore wind buildout
Volatility: highZ=60
PrPraseodymiummagnet
NdFeB magnets (co-alloyed with Nd) · Aircraft engines · Ceramics pigment
EV motorsWind turbines
Volatility: highZ=59
DyDysprosiummagnet
High-temp NdFeB magnets · EV traction motors · Nuclear reactor control rods
EV adoption (high-temp motor magnets)Wind turbines
Volatility: highZ=66
TbTerbiummagnet
High-temp NdFeB magnets (Dy substitute) · Green phosphors · Solid-state devices
EV motors (alternative to Dy)Lighting
Volatility: highZ=65
LaLanthanumcatalyst
Petroleum refining catalysts (FCC) · NiMH batteries · Optical glass
Refinery throughputHybrid vehicles (NiMH)
Volatility: lowZ=57
CeCeriumcatalyst
Automotive catalytic converters · Glass polishing (CeO₂) · Diesel additives
Auto production (catalytic converters)Semiconductor polishing
Volatility: lowZ=58

China Production Quotas (REO kt)

Annual mining quotas set by Ministry of Natural Resources

2023
255
+21.4% YoY
2024
270
+5.9% YoY
2025
280
+3.7% YoY
2026
290
+3.6% YoY

Non-China Project Pipeline

Active and near-term rare earth projects outside China

ProjectCompanyCountryStageCapacity (kt)
Mountain Pass Mine & MagneticsMP MaterialsUSAoperational40
Mt Weld Mine + LAMP + KalgoorlieLynas Rare EarthsAustralia / Malaysiaoperational12
White Mesa Mill RE ProcessingEnergy FuelsUSAcommissioning3
Eneabba Rare Earth RefineryIluka ResourcesAustraliaconstruction5

NdFeB Magnet Demand Forecast (kt)

Supply-demand balance driven by EV and wind turbine adoption

YearEVWindTotalSupplyBalance
20257337220225+5
20268641242238-4
202710246268252-16
202812052298268-30
202914058330285-45
203016565368305-63