Rare Earths & Critical Minerals
China Dependency: 87%The most concentrated supply chain in commodities. China controls mining through magnets. EV and wind turbine growth is driving structural deficits in magnet rare earths.
Live RE Prices
Macro Overlay
Miner / Metal Ratios
MP Materials / REMX (MP/REMX)
REMX / NdPr Proxy
Supply Chain Concentration
Critical RiskChina ~69%, USA (Mountain Pass) ~12%, Myanmar ~8%, Australia (Mt Weld) ~7%. Myanmar supply is artisanal, high-risk — flows through China for processing.
Lynas operates the only non-Chinese separation plant at scale (LAMP, Malaysia + Kalgoorlie, Australia). MP Materials sending concentrate to China for processing (building US capability).
Converting separated rare earth carbonates into high-purity oxides. Virtually no capacity in Europe. Japan imports oxide for magnet production.
Reducing oxides to metals (electrolysis/metallothermic). This is the critical bottleneck — almost no Western capacity. Japan (TDK, Shin-Etsu) has small domestic metal production.
Sintered NdFeB magnets for EVs, wind turbines, electronics. Japan (Proterial/Hitachi Metals, TDK) ~5%. EU has near-zero production. US: zero.
The Balancing Problem
Mining one element means mining all of them. Ore content vs. market demand creates structural surpluses (La, Ce) and deficits (Nd, Dy, Tb).
Value Concentration Curve
DerivedLorenz curve showing the mismatch between ore content and economic value across rare earth elements.
75% of ore content produces only 10% of value
Rare Earth Price History ($/kg, annual avg)
Global RE Production (2023)
Global RE Trade Flows
NdFeB Magnet Trade (HS 8505.11)
RE Patent Filings (Innovation Signal)
CPC codes: C01F17 (RE compounds), H01F1/055 (RE magnets), C22B59 (RE extraction). Source: USPTO PatentsView.
MP Materials Realized RE Pricing
SEC EDGARMP Materials (NYSE: MP) — the only scaled non-China RE mine. Realized pricing from 10-K/10-Q SEC filings.
Global REE Deposits (45)
Source: USGS Mineral Resources Data System. Dot size proportional to estimated reserves.
Recycling Rates: RE vs Other Metals
RE recycling is structurally difficult: small per-unit quantities, complex separation chemistry, and dispersed end-of-life products.
RE Content per Application (kg REO)
Note: log scale. MRI scanners and DD wind turbines contain 100-300x more RE than a BEV.
Strategic Stockpile Status
Sources: DLA Strategic Materials (USA), JOGMEC (Japan), EU CRM Act proposed targets.
Satellite Mine Monitoring (NDVI)
Declining NDVI (vegetation index) indicates mine expansion/activity. Sentinel-2 monthly composites.
Source: Copernicus Sentinel-2 L2A. NDVI = (NIR − Red) / (NIR + Red). Lower values = less vegetation = more mining activity.
NdFeB Magnet Demand by Application
Fastest growing segment. Each EV traction motor: 1-3 kg NdFeB. Dual-motor EVs use 4-6 kg. Tesla moved to non-RE motors (SRM) in some models — but performance trade-off. Most OEMs still use NdFeB.
Direct-drive offshore turbines use ~600 kg NdFeB per MW. Geared turbines use less. Offshore wind buildout (15-20 GW/yr) is major demand driver. Siemens Gamesa, Vestas, GE Vernova all use PM generators.
Smartphones (~2g NdFeB), laptops, tablets, headphones, speakers. Mature market, low growth. Apple, Samsung major consumers.
Industrial automation, CNC machines, servo motors, humanoid robots. Each industrial robot arm uses 1-2 kg NdFeB. Factory automation + humanoid robot trend could accelerate demand.
Guided missiles, fighter jet actuators, satellite systems, sonar. SmCo magnets for extreme temperatures. US defense stockpile concerns driving domestic sourcing mandates.
MRI machines use NdFeB magnets. Gadolinium contrast agents. Stable demand, high-value applications.
Air conditioners, refrigerators, elevators, power tools. Energy efficiency regulations driving PM motor adoption in appliances.
China Production Quotas (kt REO)
China Export Quotas vs Actual Exports
NdFeB Magnet Demand Forecast (kt)
China Domestic Absorption Monitor
Supply Tightness SignalDomestic absorption = mining quota − actual exports. When China keeps more for itself, global supply tightens.
Supply Gap vs Non-China Buildout
DerivedMagnet rare earth deficit overlaid with cumulative non-China project capacity coming online.
Non-China Self-Sufficiency Timeline
DerivedWestern demand (31% of global) vs non-China supply capacity. Import dependency on right axis.
Non-China Project Pipeline
DOD Title III funding ($58M). DOE loan guarantee pending.
Only operating rare earth mine in the Americas. Currently ships concentrate to China — building on-site separation and magnet facility in Fort Worth, TX. Target: mine-to-magnet in USA by 2025.
DOD contract ($258M for heavy RE separation). Australian Critical Minerals Facility grant.
Largest non-Chinese integrated rare earth operation. Mt Weld (Australia) → LAMP (Malaysia) for separation. New Kalgoorlie cracking & leaching plant operational 2024, reducing Malaysia dependency.
DOE support for domestic RE processing.
Uranium mill in Utah repurposed for rare earth processing. Taking monazite sand feedstock from heavy mineral sand miners (Chemours). Producing mixed rare earth carbonate — needs further separation.
Australian Government A$1.65B critical minerals loan. A$200M NAIF grant.
First fully integrated rare earth refinery outside of China. Will process feedstock from Iluka's Eneabba mineral sands stockpile and other Australian sources. Produces separated NdPr oxide.
Australian Government A$840M NAIF loan. Hyundai-Kia offtake agreement.
Integrated mine-to-oxide project in Northern Territory. Phosphogypsum waste challenge. Hyundai-Kia signed binding NdPr offtake for EV magnet supply. FID not yet taken.
None (politically contested). EU Critical Raw Materials interest.
Massive REE + uranium deposit. Greenland government banned uranium mining (2021), effectively blocking project. Political reversal possible as EU/NATO supply security concerns grow.
Canadian Critical Minerals Strategy funding.
Developing RapidSX continuous ion exchange separation technology — could disrupt Chinese solvent extraction dominance. Demo plant in Kingston, Ontario.
Non-China Project Investment Comparison
EDGAR-derivedCapital efficiency, government backing, and implied revenue using MP Materials' realized pricing ($51/kg).
Element Guide
Export Control Timeline
Not rare earths directly but signals willingness to weaponize critical minerals.
Prevents non-Chinese projects from licensing Chinese processing know-how. Major blow to Western supply chain.
All rare earth production under state supervision. Traceability system. Illegal mining crackdown.
Escalation pattern. Rare earth restrictions widely expected if US-China tensions worsen.
Covers sintered NdFeB magnet manufacturing know-how. Targets emerging non-Chinese magnet producers.
Geopolitical Price Scenario Matrix
Historical multipliers from past export restrictions applied to current prices. "If China restricts exports again, how much could each element spike?"
| Scenario | NdPr | Dy | Tb |
|---|---|---|---|
Current Price | $71/kg | $325/kg | $1240/kg |
Quota Cut (2011-style) China cuts export quotas 40%, restricts processing 2010-2011 crisis | 7.1x $507/kg | 14.9x $4858/kg | 7.7x $9600/kg |
Tech Ban (2023-style) Processing technology + equipment export ban 2023 Ga/Ge controls | 2.0x $142/kg | 2.5x $813/kg | 3.0x $3720/kg |
Full Embargo Complete rare earth export halt to Western nations Hypothetical (2011 × 1.2) | 8.6x $609/kg | 17.9x $5829/kg | 9.3x $11520/kg |
EV battery supply chain includes lithium, cobalt & nickel.
Battery Metals →Track China export controls, quotas, and trade disruptions.
China Watch →New mine projects, timelines, and capex across critical minerals.
Mining Pipeline →End-to-end supply chain mapping and concentration risk.
Supply Chain →